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Mindset -> Comfort Zone -> Sales -> The Economy -> Uncertainty
Let’s talk real for a minute. If you’re running a trucking business—whether it’s just you and your truck or you’re managing a small fleet—you’ve probably been feeling some changes. Freight’s been a little slower. Rates are bouncing. And everybody’s asking: “Where’s the freight going?”
So today, let’s break this down like we’re just sitting across the table talking business. No fluff, no heavy jargon. Just real info to help you get ahead in Q2 of 2025.
What’s the Economy Saying Right Now?
Let’s look at the signals. The numbers don’t lie. They just need to be read right.*
- GDP (Gross Domestic Product): -1.8% (Q1 2025)
This means the economy shrank. When the economy shrinks, people spend less, businesses produce less, and freight slows down. That affects all of us.- This contraction is partly due to recent trade tensions and tariffs impacting various industries.
- Consumer Confidence: 92.9 (March 2025)
Consumers are worried. When they’re nervous about their money, they don’t spend as much. And when spending slows, demand for consumer goods—and the trucks that haul them—goes down.- This dip is influenced by economic uncertainty and recent policy changes.
- Retail Sales: +0.2% (Feb 2025)
Spending is barely moving. It’s still in the positive, but this is a slow crawl. Don’t expect booming loads from big box stores right now.- Consumers are pulling back on discretionary spending amid growing uncertainty.
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): +0.2% (Feb 2025)
This shows inflation is slowing down. That’s good news—stable prices could encourage more spending. But it doesn’t mean people are rushing to buy yet.- The recent tariffs have contributed to price increases in certain sectors, affecting overall inflation rates.
- Unemployment Rate: 4.1% (Feb 2025)
Still relatively low, but inching up. A stable job market keeps freight flowing. But if layoffs pick up, we’ll see the effects in lower freight volumes.- The slight increase may be due to businesses adjusting to new trade policies and tariffs.
- Class 8 Truck Orders: Down 35% YoY
Fleets are pulling back. That’s a big red flag. If they’re not buying trucks, it’s because they don’t see enough freight in the near future to justify expansion.- Economic uncertainty and anticipated tariffs are causing hesitation in fleet expansion.
- Savings Rate: 4.6% (Jan 2025)
People are saving more. That sounds good—but it also means they’re spending less. Less spending = less freight.- This cautious behavior reflects consumer uncertainty about the economic outlook.
“If the economy is contracting, and you’re chasing the same freight the same way, you’re not in a slowdown—you’re in a setup… for failure.”
Where’s the Freight Actually Moving?
Now, not all lanes are drying up. Some sectors are heating up.
- Construction: Housing starts are up 11.2%. That means flatbeds are going to be in demand—hauling everything from lumber to drywall. This surge is driven by increased demand for housing and infrastructure projects.
- Manufacturing: The ISM Manufacturing Index hit 62.4%. That’s strong growth. More production = more shipments of components and finished goods. Manufacturers are ramping up production to meet both domestic and international demand.
- Agriculture: It’s planting season. That means equipment, fertilizer, and soon, produce. If you’re a reefer hauler, get ahead now. Favorable weather conditions and export opportunities are boosting agricultural activities.
- Ports: The Port of LA saw a 2.5% increase in volume. Imports are growing again. That’s a good sign for intermodal and drayage work. This uptick is partly due to businesses stocking up ahead of anticipated tariffs.
“Reefer freight is coming… not for everyone—just for the ones who built relationships early.“
How Tariffs and Politics Are Changing the Game
This one’s big, so pay attention:
- Steel & Aluminum Tariff (25%)
Just signed in March, this one makes it more expensive to build trailers, repair equipment, and buy new trucks. Prices are already up 22%. Trucking Info - Auto Import Tariff (25%) – Effective April 2
This will shake up the auto supply chain. If you’re in auto-hauling or rely on parts moving from the ports, watch this closely. AP News - Additional Tariffs Expected
The administration plans to implement “reciprocal” tariffs on various goods starting April 2, referred to as “Liberation Day,” affecting industries like automotive and pharmaceuticals. AP News - Canada’s Response
Canada has announced retaliatory tariffs on various U.S. goods if the April tariffs are imposed. CNN
“The government just made trailers more expensive overnight. That ‘maybe I’ll buy another truck’ just got $35,000 pricier.“
Impact on Consumers and Businesses:
- Consumers: Expect higher prices on imported goods, including vehicles and electronics, as tariffs increase costs for businesses, which are often passed on to consumers.
- Businesses: Companies reliant on imported materials face increased production costs, potentially leading to reduced profits, layoffs, or relocation of operations.
- Carriers: Higher equipment costs and potential decreases in freight volumes could squeeze profit margins, especially for smaller operators.
Impact on the Trucking Industry
The recent imposition of tariffs on steel, aluminum, and imported automobiles is set to have multifaceted effects on the trucking industry:
- Increased Equipment Costs: Tariffs on steel and aluminum are expected to raise the production costs of trucks and trailers. Estimates suggest that the price of a new truck could increase by up to $35,000, posing financial challenges, especially for smaller carriers. TruckingInfo
- Reduced Freight Volumes: The 25% tariff on imported vehicles may lead to higher car prices, potentially dampening consumer demand and resulting in decreased shipments for auto haulers. This reduction in freight volumes could further strain the trucking industry. Reuters+1Reuters+1
- Supply Chain Disruptions: Tariffs affecting auto parts and components can disrupt the integrated supply chains between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Such disruptions may lead to inefficiencies and delays in cross-border trucking operations. Automotive Logistics
- Operational Challenges: Increased costs for parts and maintenance due to tariffs can raise overall operational expenses for trucking companies. Additionally, potential decreases in freight volumes may squeeze profit margins, particularly for smaller operators. AtoB Fuel Card
- Regulatory Uncertainty: The evolving nature of trade policies introduces uncertainty, making it challenging for trucking companies to plan for the future. This uncertainty can affect decisions related to fleet expansion, route planning, and investment in new technologies. FleetOwner
In summary, these tariffs are poised to increase operational costs, disrupt established supply chains, and potentially reduce freight volumes, collectively posing significant challenges for the trucking industry. So What Should You DO About It?
The Crucial Role of Relationships in the Trucking Industry
So What Should You DO About It?
Let’s get tactical. Here’s what you can do starting today:
- Diversify Freight Mix
If you only haul one type of freight, spread out. Look at construction, manufacturing, ag loads. - Watch These Indicators Monthly
These aren’t just news numbers. They tell you where things are headed. - Hold Off on Big Purchases
With prices up, wait on new equipment unless it’s necessary. Transport Works+5Home+5S&P Global+5 - Start Building Direct Shipper Relationships
These are the most stable and profitable loads. Pick up the phone, send emails, shake hands if you can.
“Your truck isn’t your most valuable asset—your relationships are. Trucks break down. Relationships open doors.“
How This Helps You in Sales
When you’re talking to shippers, use this info. It shows you know what’s going on, and it builds credibility.
Say things like:
- “I know construction’s picking up. We’ve got the trailers and coverage to help with your material flow.”
- “Manufacturing’s growing—what’s your shipping volume looking like for Q2?”
“Some of you are trying to haul your way out of a slowdown. The smart ones are talking their way out—introducing themselves to shippers, shaking hands, building bridges.“
How FR8Connect Can Help You Do All of This
Now here’s where FR8Connect comes in. You don’t have to figure this all out on your own:
- Industry Insights through the FMI Newsletter and audio blog keep you informed, focused, and ready to act.
- FR8Cast provides full videos on YouTube to support you through your trucking journey.
- Sales Training & Weekly Coaching teaches you how to approach shippers, close deals, and build long-term relationships.
- FR8Leads gives you access to real leads. No more cold-calling random numbers.
We created FR8Connect to give carriers, brokers, and dispatchers a better shot. We’re here to help you grow with the market—not get buried by it.
Final Word: Stay Ready
The economy is shifting. Freight’s shifting. Don’t sit back and hope for the best. Watch the data. Adjust. Move with purpose.
Because one thing is still true: trucks that move with strategy, move with freight.
Stay sharp. Stay moving. Stay winning.
* Analyzing economic indicators over time, rather than focusing on single data points, offers a more accurate and comprehensive understanding of underlying trends and patterns. Single data points can be influenced by short-term anomalies or seasonal variations, potentially leading to misleading conclusions. By examining data across extended periods, one can identify consistent movements, cyclical behaviors, and long-term trajectories, which are crucial for informed decision-making. For instance, tracking the Consumer Confidence Index over several months reveals whether consumer sentiment is genuinely improving or declining, beyond isolated fluctuations. This approach enables businesses and policymakers to anticipate changes, adapt strategies proactively, and mitigate risks associated with volatile economic conditions.
